El Nino Prediction – A New Perspective Based on the Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) Framework
Dr. (Cdr) Arnab Das
Director and Founder of MRC, Pune
Key Highlights
- The global community is once again faced with the El Nino prediction for this year. The last 15 episodes between 1951 to 2022, have shown extreme weather events accompanied with global warming.
- The last episode of 2015 in India, saw 13% lower rainfall, whereas the episode in 2009 saw the worst drought with devastating impact on the economy and the ecosystem.
- Poor freshwater management has been a major cause of serious devastation faced both by the urban and rural communities.
The global community is once again faced with the El Nino prediction for this year. The last 15 episodes between 1951 to 2022, have shown extreme weather events accompanied with global warming. Out of these, eight occasions witnessed deficient monsoon and another three-saw rainfall below normal. This year’s moderate to strong El Nino prediction translates to approximately 73% chances of below the long-term normal rains. The last episode of 2015 in India, saw 13% lower rainfall, whereas the episode in 2009 saw the worst drought with devastating impact on the economy and the ecosystem. Globally, the episode in 1997 was regarded as the most powerful with temperature rise of 1.5 deg C (2.7 deg F), compared to the normal increase of 0.25 deg C associated with the El Nino events.
India is primarily an agrarian based economy with over 50% population dependent on it, for their livelihood. Agriculture and the allied sectors, contributes 18 % to the GDP and has been largely dependent on the monsoons for its success. Monsoon impacts the crop production and thus the livelihood of the 50% population. These are the majority, who actively participate in the electoral process in deciding the next government.
"The monsoon and consequent agricultural production have a direct impact on the inflation and thus also influences the overall economic sentiments. The El Nino prediction is the bad news for India’s agricultural sector for the coming year. The demographic correlation of the agrarian activities makes it a very sensitive political issue."
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Dr. (Cdr) Arnab Das
Director and Founder of MRC, Pune
Dr Das is a former Naval officer with 2 decades of active services and PhD holder from IIT Delhi with specialization in Underwater Acoustics. He has worked on several projects and has a plethora of publications to his credit.